Future Scenario

Future Scenarios are a crucial tool for any foresight work and might be the most-used method in futures studies and corporate foresight projects.

What if?

Maybe the easiest way to trigger the imagination of a future scenario is to ask a question, starting with “What if…?”

A simple model

A good scenario needs to consist of at least two aspects:

Worldbuilding
+ [[ Storytelling ]]
= Future Scenario

I’ve deducted this idea from science-fiction movies but came to it because I’ve seen too many scenario works being shrugged off. Imagine a science fiction movie that is only exposition without any plot. Especially in futures studies projects, the focus seems to be on the “scientifically correct way” of developing scenarios – the worldbuilding part, which usually leads to bland technocratic descriptions full of statistics and abstract explanations. But what good is a scenario if it is developed thoroughly but fails to have any impact? If you’re unsure, look at the last 30 years of futures studies here in Germany: nobody cares¹.

A scenario needs some form of storytelling for its audience to have an emotional connection. Luckily, a couple of movements in futures studies and related disciplines focus on this challenge, like Experiential Foresight and Design Fiction.