Future Scenario

Future Scenarios are a crucial tool for any foresight work and might be the most-used method in futures studies and corporate foresight projects.

What if?

Maybe the easiest way to trigger the imagination of a future scenario is to ask a question, starting with “What if…?”

A simple model

A good scenario needs to consist of at least two aspects:

Worldbuilding
+ [[ Storytelling ]]
= Future Scenario

I’ve deducted this idea from science-fiction movies but came to it because I’ve seen too many scenario works being shrugged off. Imagine a science fiction movie that is only exposition without any plot. Especially in futures studies projects, the focus seems to be on the “scientifically correct way” of developing scenarios – the worldbuilding part, which usually leads to bland technocratic descriptions full of statistics and abstract explanations. But what good is a scenario if it is developed thoroughly but fails to have any impact? If you’re unsure, look at the last 30 years of futures studies here in Germany: nobody cares1.

A scenario needs some form of storytelling for its audience to have an emotional connection. Luckily, a couple of movements in futures studies and related disciplines focus on this challenge, like Experiential Foresight and Design Fiction.

  1. The gap has been monetized by trend gurus to astonishing success. 

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