Future Scenario
Future Scenarios are a crucial tool for any foresight work and might be the most-used method in futures studies and corporate foresight projects.
What if?
Maybe the easiest way to trigger the imagination of a future scenario is to ask a question, starting with “What if…?”
A simple model
A good scenario needs to consist of at least two aspects:
Worldbuilding
+ [[ Storytelling ]]
= Future Scenario
I’ve deducted this idea from science-fiction movies but came to it because I’ve seen too many scenario works being shrugged off. Imagine a science fiction movie that is only exposition without any plot. Especially in futures studies projects, the focus seems to be on the “scientifically correct way” of developing scenarios – the worldbuilding part, which usually leads to bland technocratic descriptions full of statistics and abstract explanations. But what good is a scenario if it is developed thoroughly but fails to have any impact? If you’re unsure, look at the last 30 years of futures studies here in Germany: nobody cares1.
A scenario needs some form of storytelling for its audience to have an emotional connection. Luckily, a couple of movements in futures studies and related disciplines focus on this challenge, like Experiential Foresight and Design Fiction.
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The gap has been monetized by trend gurus to astonishing success. ↩
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