Questions for the Start of a Foresight Project

I first developed these questions for an article about The Beginning and the End of Foresight.

At the beginning of a foresight project, the client comes to you with a question or an objective. Basically they want to be able to make a decision, whether it is about the way forward, the choice of a strategy or an investment, or more generally to be more aware of what might lie ahead. But even before agreeing on the budget and the process, it helps to ask a series of questions:

About the Project

• What is the client’s current understanding of the issue or topic they wish to explore?
• Are there alternative ways of framing the issue that might lead to different insights?
• What are the boundaries of the topic, and are they appropriate for the client’s needs?
• What time horizon is being considered, and is it appropriate for the topic?
• How will the client measure the success of the foresight project?

About the Context

• What specific events or trends have prompted this foresight initiative?
• What internal and external factors influence the client’s perspective?
• What sources of information does the client rely on, and are they sufficiently diverse?

About the Organization

• What is the organization’s past experience with foresight projects, including their implementation?
• How open is the organization to challenging its current views and considering disruptive change?
• Who are the key stakeholders for this project, and what are their decision-making cycles?
• What are the relevant reporting lines and the incentives of the involved stakeholders?¹

About the Client’s Futures Culture

s. Key Questions in Critical Futures Studies

• What role does the future play in the organization’s strategy and operations?
• How do “official” and “hidden” future narratives coexist within the organization?
• What range of future scenarios is the organization willing to consider, and what’s off limits?
• How does the organization typically deal with risk and uncertainty?

In most foresight projects, this futures culture of a client is never outlined. It usually only becomes apparent when something in the foresight project goes against it and there is suddenly strong pushback, such as when you present interim results to a manager and he gets angry for no apparent reason.