Methods

A comprehensive overview of methods, frameworks, and tools in foresight and futures studies

This collection represents the methodological toolkit available in the Futures Garden, organized by type and application. Each method serves different purposes in futures work, from initial diagnosis to deep transformation.

Frameworks & Models

Causal Layered Analysis (CLA)
Sohail Inayatullah’s transformative methodology analyzing issues across four layers: litany, systems, worldviews, and myths/metaphors

Futures Triangle
Inayatullah’s diagnostic tool mapping three competing forces: pull of the future (aspirations), push of the present (trends), and weight of the past (barriers)

VERGE Framework
Human-centered alternative to STEEP, examining change through six domains of human experience: Define, Relate, Connect, Create, Consume, Destroy

Games & Exercises

CLA Game
Participatory role-playing exercise using the four CLA layers to deconstruct and reconstruct complex issues through collaborative analysis

Sarkar Game
Role-playing exercise based on P.R. Sarkar’s theory of social change, exploring power dynamics through four societal classes: Workers, Warriors, Intellectuals, Capitalists

Polak Game
Simple positioning exercise based on Fred Polak’s work, revealing participants’ future orientation through optimism/pessimism and agency/influence axes

Analysis & Assessment Methods

Windtunneling
Method for testing strategy robustness by examining how different future scenarios might affect the ability to deliver objectives and strategic goals

Pattern Recognition
William Gibson’s approach to identifying weak signals and emerging patterns in the present that indicate future directions

Planning & Strategy Tools

Questions for the Start of a Foresight Project
Diagnostic framework covering project scope, organizational context, stakeholder dynamics, and futures culture before beginning foresight work

Worldbuilding
Systematic approach to constructing detailed, coherent future scenarios through comprehensive exploration of social, technological, and cultural dimensions

Conceptual Tools

Future Scenario
Structured approaches to developing and using scenarios for exploring multiple possible futures and their implications

Trends
Methodologies for identifying, analyzing, and working with trends as drivers of change in futures work

Research Approaches

Tools for the examination of future imaginaries
Research methodologies for studying how futures are imagined, constructed, and circulated in different contexts and communities

Method Integration

Many of these methods work powerfully in combination:

• Diagnostic Flow: Start with Questions for the Start of a Foresight Project, use Polak Game for group orientation, then Futures Triangle for force mapping
• Deep Analysis: Follow Futures Triangle with Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) for transformative insights
• Participatory Approaches: Combine games (CLA Game, Sarkar Game, Polak Game) for experiential learning
• Strategy Development: Use Windtunneling to test strategies developed through other methods

Methodological Principles

The methods in this collection reflect several key principles:

• Multiple Perspectives: Recognition that futures are always plural and contested
• Transformative Intent: Moving beyond prediction to enable actual change
• Cultural Sensitivity: Awareness of how different worldviews shape futures thinking
• Participatory Orientation: Engaging stakeholders as co-creators rather than passive recipients
• Critical Analysis: Questioning assumptions, power structures, and taken-for-granted futures